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Distinguished Bibliophile
keriflur
Posts: 6,836
Registered: ‎01-05-2010
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Re: It's ALL doomed! James Patterson is afraid so, anyway.

LOL, dude, I'm not "shifting" to anything.  You made two contradictory statements to the effect of, crap will not win, and crap will win.  These are mutually exclusive statements.  I quoted you.  Did you read yourself?

 

I'm not even sure YOU know what you think anymore, other than that you believe books and apps are effectively the same thing.

 

Are you running for office?  That would explain the doublespeak and backtracking.

 

I'm also unclear why you're so self-pub FTW.  You're not a writer. Crap writing certainly doesn't benefit readers (Are you an avid reader? I don't actually know).  You don't seem to have a dog in the race, but you seem very quick to tell other people what they think and what they'll do.

Bibliophile
5ivedom
Posts: 3,544
Registered: ‎12-03-2011
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Re: It's ALL doomed! James Patterson is afraid so, anyway.

I like how you haven't addressed any of my points.

 

Here's what I think would benefit the discussion

 

1) Keriflur discussing Old Publishing vs New Publishing. Not in a strawman argument of 'writing quality' but in the REAL metrics - sales, who sells more, who readers choose, who gets read more.

 

2) Keriflur discussing EXACTLY WHY she thinks Old Publishing is going to beat New Publishing.

 

3) Keriflur, if she arrives at the conclusion that New Publishing is going to win, lets me know whether she intends to sink with the sinking ship of Old Publishing or whether she'll reluctantly switch to New Publishing.

 

My main curiosity is WHY you want to sink with the old model. Surely, you must see the signs around you that the old model of Publishing is sinking. If not, then let me know and then there's no point to the discussion.

 

However, if you do see the signs, then why do you want to stick to the model that's being killed off?

Distinguished Bibliophile
keriflur
Posts: 6,836
Registered: ‎01-05-2010

Re: It's ALL doomed! James Patterson is afraid so, anyway.

Here's the thing you'd know if you actually read my posts.  I don't see an actual competition between "old" and "new" publishing, I see an increase in OPTIONS for writers, which means that having BOTH is a good thing.

 

And, I never said that I'm against self-pub.  I said that writers should consider all their options and learn the facts before making decisions.

 

As far as who's making the most $$, right now that's trad pubbers, especially in my writing category (YA).  So it'd be silly of me, if I want to be a pro writer, to not consider trad pub, especially if my writing is good enough.  But that doesn't mean I'm not keeping my options open. You've assumed I'm not, rather than reading what I'm actually saying.

 

Just because someone doesn't think that EVERYONE should self-pub, that doesn't mean they think NOBODY should self-pub.  THERE IS NO ONE RIGHT WAY FOR EVERYONE.

 

So, you still haven't answered my questions.  Are you an avid reader?  Why are you so concerned with whether or not self-pub takes down trad?  What's the benefit to you?  These questions aren't retorical - I actually want to know, because right now your conviction doesn't make sense to me.

Distinguished Bibliophile
bobstro
Posts: 4,075
Registered: ‎01-01-2012
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Re: It's ALL doomed! James Patterson is afraid so, anyway.

5ivedom wants to have a point-by-point debate about why publishing is a zero sum game with only one winner. Last time I tried to seriously address any of 5's points, I wound up reading a 7 page, 4 year old article on a different topic. 

Bibliophile
5ivedom
Posts: 3,544
Registered: ‎12-03-2011
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Re: It's ALL doomed! James Patterson is afraid so, anyway.

I just see reality as it is.

 

And the trends are clear.

 

You sound just like the people who said - At most Kindle will sell 40K units in its lifetime.

 

The entire Publishing market is getting disrupted.

 

So I'm just pointing out that the scenario you are optimized for - It'll be GONE in 5 to 10 years.

 

So if you optimize for it, you'll be left stranged in 5 to 10 years.

 

On the other hand, if you hedge your bets and UNDERSTAND why self-published authors are seeing huge success, then you can rise with the floating tide.

 

*******

Do you get my point?

 

I'm just reminding you that the whole trade pub scene you are talking about might disappear and you should be prepared for that eventuality.

 

We're in the 2nd innings here.

 

By the 7th inning stretch there won't be ANYTHING left that resembles the current model. Within 5 to 10 years.

 

If you think it's an exaggeration just look back to 5 years ago when ebooks were 2.87% of the market.

Distinguished Bibliophile
bobstro
Posts: 4,075
Registered: ‎01-01-2012
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Re: It's ALL doomed! James Patterson is afraid so, anyway.

Who exactly are you talking to 5? I thought the Kindle was pretty slick when it first came out, just too expensive. You're not revealing any great truths. Yes, things change, technology evolves and transforms business. Only you've been arguing that YOU can see the late innings somehow, and that it's exclusively self pub. 

Wordsmith
TnTexas
Posts: 897
Registered: ‎10-22-2011
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Re: It's ALL doomed! James Patterson is afraid so, anyway.

[ Edited ]

5ivedom: The entire Publishing market is getting disrupted.

 

So I'm just pointing out that the scenario you are optimized for - It'll be GONE in 5 to 10 years

 

 

Being disrupted and being vaporized are two different things. I have no doubt that traditional publishing will change in the coming years. After all, nothing stays static even if they don't change quickly. But I don't think it will completely disappear. In other words, I don't think that all we'll have for publishing options some day will be self-publishing ones.

 

On the other hand, if you hedge your bets and UNDERSTAND why self-published authors are seeing huge success, then you can rise with the floating tide.

 

Let me correct that sentence for you: On the other hand, if you hedge your bets and UNDERSTAND why SOME self-published authors are seeing huge success, then you can rise with the floating tide.

 

Like traditional authors, the majority of self-publishing authors don't see huge success. I know you know that, but your comments often sound like you don't.

 

If you think it's an exaggeration just look back to 5 years ago when ebooks were 2.87% of the market.

 

The rise of e-books doesn't mean the fall and eventual disappearance of traditional publishing. It simply indicates a probable shift in the number of DBT books vs the number of ebooks it produces. E-books are not synonymous with self-publishing. They are two separate factors.

 

.

Bibliophile
5ivedom
Posts: 3,544
Registered: ‎12-03-2011
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Re: It's ALL doomed! James Patterson is afraid so, anyway.

This: But I don't think it will completely disappear. In other words, I don't think that all we'll have for publishing options some day will be self-publishing ones.

 

 

This is an assumption.

 

As is my assumption that Traditional Publishing will disappear.

 

Try an experiment.

 

1) Go to Amazon Top 100 and average out the prices. And also see how many low priced books there are now.

 

2) Now, factor in the Manipulation Amazon is doing by weighing price into the best seller lists.

 

3) Now go to Amazon Historical Best seller lists and check the prices. If you can't find them, then google it. For reference - there were 2 books at $1 in the Top 100 in 2008. And there was NO list for Top 100 free Books.

 

4) Now consider the rise in ebooks from 2.87% to 22.5% or more in 5 years.

 

*****

 

What does that tell us?

 

IN 5 years, the average price of books in the bestseller lists has fallen 30% to 40%.

 

In 5 years, a new category of Free Books has come up that regularly gets 10-30 times more downloads than paid books.

 

In 5 years ebooks have risen from 2.87% to 22.5%. Even higher for books that are available in ebook format from the start.

 

*****

 

Now, consider our assumptions.

 

Your and Keriflur's assumption: Traditional Published can keep going on books that are getting cheaper and that have no distribution or shipping limitations.

 

My Assumption: The trend will continue and we'll see, within 5-10 years -

 

a) Average book prices below $5.

 

b) eBook share of 50% to 75%.

 

c) Death of Publishers due to two main things

 

A) Established Authors will want 50% or more of ebooks.

B) Self-Published INdie Authors will keep driving prices lower and will keep getting top spots.

 

d) EVEN MORE of a shift towards free.

 

Amazon encouraged the move to 'free' to dominate ebooks. Now they're trying to backtrack. However, you have something like 20-30 million Readers that are now trained to expect free.

 

*****

 

That's all. I'm ASSUMING that the trends will continue.

You are ASSUMING that things will stabilize. Or pehaps that trends will reverse.

 

IF the trends continue then there simply won't be enough money for a Publishing Company to survive.

 

If they are getting 25% to 50% of ebooks priced at $3 to $5, can they really survive given they are used to getting 50% of books priced at $10 to $20. PLUS they will have less of the top spots since hungry indie authors will undercut them with $1 and $2 books. PLUS free is very effective marketing and it eliminates the HUGE marketing advantage that Publishers had (visibility vs zero visibility for indie authors).

 

eBooks just need to hit 40% to 50% market share and then the bleeding will be too much for Publishers.

 

My ASSUMPTION is exactly that. It's based on the trends. Of course, you might be right that the trends will reverse or things will stabilize at current levels.

 

However, and I'm betting 100% on this, the trends will not stop. Both readers and authors are tasting freedom for the first time.

 

It's like a tiger getting a taste of human flesh. Ask Jim Corbett what the chances are of that tiger sticking with deer.

Wordsmith
doncr
Posts: 493
Registered: ‎12-29-2010
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Re: It's ALL doomed! James Patterson is afraid so, anyway.

5ivedom,

 

So why hasn't something similar happened to the recording industry?  The record labels are still around and you'd think that the consumption of music is mainly digital now.

 

Distinguished Bibliophile
keriflur
Posts: 6,836
Registered: ‎01-05-2010
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Re: It's ALL doomed! James Patterson is afraid so, anyway.

5ivedom - I didn't make the assumption that you stated I made above.  Don't put words in my mouth.

 

if you want to know what I actually think, you'll have to actually read and make an effort to understand my posts.  I see no indication that you've done that.