Pipe dreams aside:
I see four major possibilies, listed in what I feel are the most probable order.
1) Refresh of the NOOKcolor, using the same basic OS and physical shell, but with better innards (faster processor, more RAM, etc.). It would save on development costs, which would allow BN to drop the price to match the $199 Fire, but still allow them to meet Amazon toe-to-toe specwise. I really like that the NOOKcolor doesn't simply look like a black box as every other Android tablet does, and if they keep that character it will help with brand recognition. Old NOOKcolor drops to $175.
2) Refresh of the NOOK Simple Touch, sorta. Same exact device, but with some sort of subsidy that allows it to be sold at $99 or less. Could be ads, but I doubt it. More likely would be some kind of book club subscription service, where you have to spend a certain amount on BN ebooks each month for a year with the purchace of the device. So you pay $49 for the device, but are charged an extra $20 each month unless you buy $20 worth of ebooks from BN that month. The regular $139 version will continue to sell at that price point.
3) 10 inch tablet, with full NOOKstudy integration. This would include stylus note capabilities, the ability to buy/rent NOOKstudy textbooks, and clound-based note/highlight storage between the new tablet and the desktop applications.
4) Color eInk/Mirasol reader. While both companies are insisting they have a major partner in the US preping to launch a color ereader, I just don't see it being financially viable at this point. Once the price of the screens drops next year I think we'll see a real Color NOOK.
Some people's minds are like cement; all mixed up and permanently set.
